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Abstract

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy (MIRAGE), we simulate the impacts of the most recent drafts circulated in the multilateral trade negotiations arena, augmented by a modest outcome of the negotiation in services. The liberalisation of tariffs is implemented at the product level in order to take into account exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non-linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies are taken into account. We integrate dynamic gains up to 2025. We observe a $US70bn world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) long run gain when agriculture and industry are liberalised, a $US85bn gain when a 3% reduction in protection for services is added to certain services sectors. Calculation of the gains associated with trade facilitation suggests roughly a doubling of the expected gains ($US152bn); port efficiency adds another $US35bn. Recent proposals for sectoral initiatives would add a further $US15bn on top of these gains.

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