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Abstract

In this paper we use a multi-regional, multi-sectoral CGE model of the world economy to assess the leakage effects and the changes of the carbon content of trade under different climate policy scenarios, including unilateral policies with and without border tariff adjustment (BTA) as well as stylized international policy scenarios. The paper combines input output techniques to assess the carbon content of trade over the whole production with CGE analysis to explore the impact of the different climate policies scenarios. The main results include that BTA does reduce the negative competitiveness effects of unilateral climate policy, but has only a modest effect on carbon leakage and hardly affects global carbon emissions. At the same time it is not a sufficient thread for many countries to rather join an international climate regime based on the contraction and convergence allocation of permits.

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