Validating a detailed, dynamic CGE model of the U.S.: progress report

For many years we have been using computable general equilibrium models in Australia and the U.S. to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. Our main objective is to provide realistic basecases from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we have started assessing our forecasting method. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate “genuine forecasts” for 500 U.S. commodities/industries for the period 1998 to 2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes.