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Abstract

The German population is forecast to become smaller and older over the next few decades. Population aging as a consequence of demographic change will influence the economy. This paper tries to quantify the effects in a computable general equilibrium model with 17 production sectors and heterogeneous households based on German data from 2000. It analyzes the sectoral effects of population aging stemming from two effects, namely a negative labor supply shock and a change in the composition of consumption demand. To the best of our knowledge it is the first paper to combine input-output data and matching micro level, i.e. household level data for Germany. The sector affected most in this analysis is that of ‘health, education and social services’.

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