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Abstract

Using a new global general equilibrium trade model, this paper analyses the impact on the global economy, especially developing countries, of the dramatic expansion of trade by India, China, and an integrated East and Southeast (E&SE) Asia trade bloc. While both India and China are very large economies, the two “Asian Drivers” differ in economic structures and trade patterns. China is an integral member of the E&SE Asia bloc, with strong links through value chains and trade in intermediate inputs, while India is not part of any trade bloc. The analysis considers the importance of their different degrees of integration into regional and global economies, focusing on potential complementarities and competition with other developing countries.

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