Liberalising EU imports for fruits and vegetables

This paper quantifies the impact of abolishing EU import barriers with respect to fruits and vegetables for sixteen fruits and vegetables. The estimations made are based on HORTUS, a supply and demand model for fruits and vegetables developed at LEI. HORTUS models the production, consumption and bilateral trade in fruits and vegetables for all EU25-countries, Morocco, Turkey and the Rest of the World. The paper shows that trade liberalisation has a large impact on European fruit production and trade. EU fruit production and exports are likely to fall substantially. European vegetable production and exports are relatively sheltered and are likely to benefit from the decline in EU fruit production. Trade liberalization between the EU and the Mediterranean countries might lead to trade diversion with respect to citrus. Morocco and Turkey are likely to produce more citrus (but less other fruits and vegetables) when they are treated preferentially at the cost of the Rest of the World.