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Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol by using AIM model. It is estimated that the GDP losses to Japan, US, EU, and Russia would be 0.42%, 0.56%, 0.44%, and 0.25%, respectively in case the Annex B countries ratify the Kyoto Protocol and reduce their emissions without emissions trading and without accounting carbon sink. On the other hand, the GDP losses to Japan and EU would grow when the United States would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, and it is estimated to fall by 0.48% and 0.47% relative to the base case scenario, respectively. The GDP loss of Russia would be 0.17%. The GDP of US would increase by 0.01%. These losses would be recovered if Kyoto mechanisms were adopted. When the emissions trading would be introduced, the GDP losses to Japan, US, and EU would be 0.14%, 0.33% and 0.19%, respectively and Russia would gain GDP by 3.5%. When carbon sink is accounted, the economic impacts can be reduced further. Even when the amount of tradable carbon is restricted, the impacts will become much less. In addition to emission trading, effects of CDM, price induced technical change, and boycott movement are examined.

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