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Through Monte Carlo simulation techniques, all possible scenarios are analyzed of the impact of the potential adoption of genetically modified herbicide tolerant sugar beets on the economics of Belgian sugar beet growers. The most likely gain for the average Belgian sugar beet grower amounts to 125 /ha. Assuming an adoption rate of 75%, this transates into a total benefit foregone of 9 million for Belgian agriculture in the agricultural season 1998-1999. Three quarters of this benefit are absorbed by the farmers, while one quarter, i.e. 3 million, is extracted by the gene developers and seed suppliers. This refutes the argument of a seed industry extracting all benefits from biotechnology innovations.


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