Farm Efficiency and Insect Infestation Forecasts: The Case of Soybeans in Illinois

A preposterior decision model and a scouting model are used to estimate the economic benefits of an area-wide soybean insect prediction system in Illinois. Results suggest forecast reliabilities of the insect prediction system must exceed 90 percent accuracy before grower profits increase and acres scouted by consultants decrease. Insecticide use, however, can increase or decrease over a range of forecast reliabilities because of the shift from insect consultants to an area-wide public supported insect prediction system. If risk averse behavior is assumed, growers will likely apply more insecticides and hence reduce forecast prediction benefits.