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Abstract

Northeast Dairy Compact impacts were estimated for Boston and Hartford retail prices using an econometric model. Asymmetric speeds of adjustment to farm price increases and decreases were found; however, tests indicated that retail prices do return to the same level following equal farm price increases and decreases. Model forecasts suggested no structural changes occurred during the out-of-sample period, July 1996 through June 1998. Simulations with and without the Compact predicted lower retail fluid milk price impacts than actual July 1997 changes. These predicted impacts separate the effects of farm price changes on retail prices from possibly confounding effects.

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