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Abstract

Of the 993 U.S. counties experiencing at least 1 year of natural population decrease (deaths outnumbering births) from 1950-87, 95 percent were nonmetro counties. The primary cause of local natural decrease today is outmigration of young adults, not inadequate fertility rates. Counties facing such long-term natural decrease may undergo significant financial stress, due to an erosion of property values and the tax base, and have difficulty in sustaining key services and businesses. Natural decrease is not always a problem, however. Many areas are thriving through inmovement of older people, even though such places have more deaths than births each year.

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