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Abstract
The aim in this study is to provide decision makers concerned with resource allocation to Papua-New-Guinea export-crop research with a tool for determining some economic effects of research options. This can facilitate the generation of pertinent information on the consequences of allocation decisions, and thus contribute to making more informed decisions. Information about the expected characteristics of the planned new technology, likely patterns and extents of its adoption, expected future supply relationships of the domestic market, and expected developments on international markets are combined in an economic surplus framework. The present study builds on previous ex-ante analyses of research, and represents an attempt to alleviate some of their perceived limitations. In the analytical method proposed here, the often-used assumption of linear supply curves and parallel shifts has been abandoned, and a formulation of Lynam and Jones (1984) is employed. A detailed model of technology replacement is developed and applied. In the process, data have been combined from a wide range of sources. Results show that researchers' and extension agents' judgements about the successfulness of new and on-going research work can be gathered consistently to show expected distributions of returns from the work. Several case studies are presented and it is pointed out that, within the limitations of its restrictions, the framework is portable. High expected returns on funds used indicated in the case-study analyses point to the likelihood of underinvestment in PNG export-crop research.