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The COVID-19 pandemic caused dramatic shifts in the agricultural economy. This article estimates the economic impact of the pandemic on Michigan agricultural production. Our conceptual model focuses on differences in five aggregated agri-food supply chains: row crops, livestock, tree fruits, vegetables, and dairy. Assuming the COVID-19 economic impact is driven by commodity price changes and changes in the relative prices and volumes of food away from home and food at home, we estimate a model of costs to the Michigan economy. Our findings indicate that the pandemic decreased the overall economic output attributable to Michigan agriculture by 18.6%, with dairy and vegetable production being the hardest hit, experiencing 25.2% and 27.2% reductions in economic output, respectively. Results from our input-output analysis suggest that the Michigan economy experienced a decline of $2,186,268,000 of primary and secondary sales due to pandemic effects on agricultural producers.


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