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Abstract

ABMSIM, an agent-based model, is extended and applied to model short- and long-distance manure transports induced by the revised German Fertilization Ordinance (FO). It quantifies impacts on manure transports (max. 150 km), regional nutrient balances, and farm types, covering the farm population (~34,000 farms) of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany (~35,000 km2). The large study area is realized by using an estimated meta-model based on simulation results with the detailed bio-economic farm model FarmDyn. Results indicate that manure exports increase due to FO measures related to P2O5 surpluses in pig farms, whereas increased transport distance is found in dairy and pig farms due to competition in the manure market. The study underlines that ABM applications for larger populations and landscapes are possible by reducing the computational load through meta-models. Future research can address improved meta-models based on econometric estimation or machine learning as well as feedback between manure market and its participants.

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