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Abstract

This paper examines the-magnitude and timing of American business cycles from 1869 to 1928, with particular emphasis on the pre-World War I period. A new real output series is constructed which resurrects the conclusion that pre-World War I business cycles were twice as severe as post-World War II business cycles. While the new series and the standard Kuznets-based estimates display similar average volatility over the entire pre-World War I period, the Kuznets-based estimates are more volatile than the new series from 1889 to 1913, while the new series is more volatile prior to 1889. This is due to modifications made to both the regression procedures used to extrapolate GNP from commodity output, and to commodity output itself. An abundance of domestic and international evidence is presented to show that the United States experienced severe downturns in both the mid-1870s and mid-1890s, downturns much worse than any recession since World War II.

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