What new export opportunities for the European dairy sector can be expected from JEFTA? Existing studies are based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which have to present trade flows in a relatively aggregated manner. This study applied a structural gravity model to disaggregated dairy trade data. The results offer a forecast of the development in Japanese imports from the EU28 with regard to the 15 most important dairy products, after taking tariffs according to reduction schedules and the implementation of respective quotas under JEFTA into account. Simulated changes in trade flows ranged from -13.2 % to 575.5 % relative to the trade pattern in 2017 and depending on trade product category. The three most important products account for 81.9 % of the overall increase: 040690 “Other cheese” for 41.2 %, 040610 “Fresh cheese and curd” for 25.5 %, 040210 “Skimmed, sweetened or conc. milk and cream” for 15.2 %.