Structural Implications of the CAP Reform after 2020 – The German Case

For the funding period 2021-2027, the European Commission wants to redesign the payment scheme in order to achieve a fairer distribution of funds. In this paper we simulate some of the proposed reforms with the agent-based model AgriPoliS. The analysis focuses on the effects of the capping of direct payment and stronger redistributive payment scheme for the first hectares on structural change, farm performance and their implications on land markets. The results show that the Commissions set goals can only be partly achieved by the proposed reform. Our analysis reveal political unintended redistributive effects at the expense of small farms.