Using a survey of New Zealand farmers, we explore the effect of drought intensity on future climate expectations and plans for land-use change, focusing on the window of experience farmers use in planning. Results suggest farmers reference the recent past rather than the historical record, indicating farmers routinely update environmental signals. Higher expectations of drought are also positively associated with land-conversion plans. Our findings suggest that while weather shocks may speed adaptation in expectation of climate change, the relatively short period of reference over which farmers compare drought may concurrently decelerate adaptation as drought becomes the “new normal”.