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Abstract

The Trans-Pacific Partnership is an influential representative of recent regional trade labialization, which will seriously affect the production and trade of China’s agricultural sectors. Taking into account tariff and trade facilitation, we assess the impact of the TPP as negotiated with a modified GTAP model. It is found that TPP may mildly impact China’s economy by -0.09%, if the trade facilitation terms in TPP are well implemented China’s loss will be much larger (-0.34%). The impact on China’s agricultural sectors, especially Meat products, Other Crops and Animal product will also be more severe. Besides, comparison of the two scenarios indicates that those previous assessments of FTA may have underestimated their advantages by ignoring the non-tariff barriers and focusing only on the tariff cut.

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