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Modelling of production risk is usually not integrated in the planning of livestock development projects. The objective of the study was to measure the impact of the Kaonafatso ya Dikgomo (KyD) livestock development scheme on calving and off-take rates as outputs, as well as variability of the output (risk). Data was collected from 164 KyD-scheme participant and 81 non-participants. A Just-Pope Production function was the theoretical framework utilised, with data analysed using Ordinary Least Squares. Results show that calving risk for KyD-scheme participants was 83.5% lower than that of non-scheme participants. Access to veterinary and dipping services increased calving risk for non-scheme participants, while frequency of extension contact reduced calving risk for scheme participants. Off-take risk for non-scheme participants was twice that for scheme participants. Distances to market and herd size reduced off-take risk for non-scheme participants, whilst herd size, frequency of extension contact, distances to market, access to veterinary services and membership to farmer organization reduced the same risk for KyD-scheme participants. Farm income was a risk-increasing determinant for scheme participants. The study concludes that participating in the KyD-scheme reduces production risk, and recommends that risk reduction attributes of the scheme should be integrated in program planning and implementation. Key words: calving rate, off-take rate, risk, Just Pope production function, Livestock Development Program. JEL Codes: O220, Q120, Q160, Q180


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