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Abstract

In recent years the potential variability of the world food system has become increasingly obvious. Especially during 1972-73 the magnitude of increases in farm product and food prices surprised most everyone within the public as well as the private sectors. To U.S. government officials who were struggling to contain inflation, especially in the administered price sectors of the economy, this tremendous increase in food prices was indeed a bitter disappointment. Moreover, from the standpoint of existing price forecasting models, it became clear that current perceptions and methods of predicting food price system events were no longer viable.

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