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Abstract
As the scarcity of foreign exchange continues, Africa's export sector must play the key role in generating investment income for Africa's financial recovery. The average annual increase in real export earnings for the countries included in this study was less than 1 percent from 1980 to 1986. Along with slow growth, the instability of export earnings has a destabilizing effect on import capacity and economic growth. The coefficients of variation of export earnings averaged about 26 percent; an index of export shortfalls averaged about 10 percent. Commodity diversification was found to be a significant factor in improving export earnings growth and reducing export instability. Given the slow movement toward diversification, the performance of primary commodities, especially prices, and improved government incentives will remain the key factors in Africa's export and economic recovery.