Polish farms mostly represent small and very small economic size (60% of the total number of farms). Their economic viability is largely dependent on the help from the EU and the state, in the form of various support instruments. Their economic results are a factor in price changes on the agricultural market. By creating potential scenarios of the farms’ working conditions, we can assess their impact on the overall economic situation of the farms. To this end, scenario analysis was applied in the research along with the creation of models of small farms specialising in cattle and pig fattening, milk, cereals, oil seeds, and protein crops. The study has shown that for 2020, the most likely scenario assumes that all of the researched farms will have smaller incomes than in 2013. Entrepreneur’s profit for the studied farms will be negative. The most favourable economic situation might occur on dairy farms, which – according to the optimistic scenario – might achieve income parity. This results from changes in the new CAP system of direct payments.