A comparison between GTAP-BIO and GLOBIOM for estimating biofuels induced land use change emissions

In this study, we compare two of the most important models in the literature of estimating biofuels induced land use change (ILUC) emissions, GTAP-BIO and GLOBIOM. Since GTAP-BIO is publicly accessible while GLOBIOM currently is not, we use biofuel pathways from the results documented in the most recent GLOBIOM report and compare them using GTAP-BIO with the same specifications. Five EU biofuel pathways, including sugar beet ethanol, starchy crop ethanol, rapeseed oil biodiesel, soy oil biodiesel, and palm oil biodiesel, are tested. The results from GTAP-BIO show lower ILUC emissions for each of the five pathways. The gap in ILUC emission values between the two models is larger for vegetable oil biodiesel pathways than for sugar and starch ethanol pathways. Simulation results are compared to the extent GLOBIOM results were available in the documentation. The major drivers of differences in the two models are livestock rebound response, palm related issues (e.g., palm oil yield and peat oxidation factor), and foregone sequestration on abandoned land. The analysis shows that the strong livestock rebound effect, low palm oil yield, and high abandoned land foregone sequestration factor may lead to an overestimation of ILUC emissions in GLOBIOM.

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Conference Paper/ Presentation
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JEL Codes:
Q42; C68

 Record created 2018-08-16, last modified 2020-10-28

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