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Abstract

Stabilization programs in open economies typically consist of two stages. In the first stage the rate of currency devaluation is reduced without a sufficient fiscal adjustment to eliminate the deficit that causes continued growth of debt and loss of reserves. Only later, at a second stage, is this followed by either an abandonment of exchange rate management or by a sufficiently large cut in the fiscal deficit. We study how different second-stage policy changes affect economic dynamics during the first stage, both when the timing of a change is known, and when it is uncertain. These changes include tax increases, budget cuts on traded and nontraded goods, and increases in the growth rate of money.

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