Correcting for bias in hot hand analysis: Analyzing performance streaks in youth golf

This paper illustrates the problems that arise with traditional tests for the hot hand and proposes instead using a consistent dynamic panel data estimator, which corrects for these problems and is easy to implement. Applying this estimator to a large dataset of amateur, youth golfers, we find no evidence of either hot or cold hand effects. When we restrict attention to the most-amateur of the golfers in our data, we do see weak evidence of a small hot hand. Thus casual athletes may experience small hot hands, but the effect does not persist among more serious athletes. This may give insight into why the belief in the hot hand in professional sports exists, even when the evidence suggests otherwise.


Issue Date:
2016-09
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
DOI and Other Identifiers:
Record Identifier:
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/274692
Language:
English
Total Pages:
1366
JEL Codes:
C01; H03
Series Statement:
Working Paper No. 1366




 Record created 2018-06-29, last modified 2020-10-28

Fulltext:
Download fulltext
PDF

Rate this document:

Rate this document:
1
2
3
 
(Not yet reviewed)