We have developed a projection model to investigate the inter-regional and intra-regional urban-rural characteristics of the current residential electricity demand in China. We have specifically focused on residential electricity demand pertaining to three major appliances; refrigerator, color-TVs and air-conditioners for cooling. The model integrates factors such as population and income growth, and urban-rural disparity of individual factors are also reflected. The relationship between income growth and appliance penetration is investigated and future residential electricity demand is projected for urban and rural areas of individual province. We postulated three scenarios i.e. 1) Base Line scenario 2) Rural Growth Scenario 3) Energy EfficiencySc enario by 2020 and conducted scenario analysis. The Base Line case projected that the total urban REC will approximately triple and the total rural REC will almost five times by 2020. The expected population growth and falling household membership will increase urban REC, whereas the penetration increase is the main driving force for rural REC growth. The Rural Growth Scenario resulted in the largest total REC among all Scenarios, suggesting rural growth plays a key role in determining the future REC in China.


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