Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach

We conduct an examination of the climate effect to analyze the historical dependence of grain production on temperatures and precipitation levels, and project this dependence to estimate the productivity of different grain types in the mid- and long-terms, given four greenhouse gas concentration pathways. We find that altering temperatures have an equivocal effect on agriculture. The most productive zones of the southern black soil belt is projected to face considerable declines in yields, due to insufficient precipitation levels and high probability of heat waves during the summer vegetation period. The northern part, on the contrary, can experience increases in productivity as a result of milder and drier winters and warmer springs.


Variant title:
Wird der Klimawandel der russischen Getreideproduktion nutzen oder schaden? Statistische Evidenz auf der Grundlage eines Panel-Ansatzes
Editor(s):
Balmann, Alfons
Brosig, Stephan
Glauben, Thomas
Herzfeld, Thomas
Hockmann, Heinrich
Müller, Daniel
Petrick, Martin
Issue Date:
2017
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
DOI and Other Identifiers:
ISSN 1438-2172 (Other)
Record Identifier:
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/253788
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/253788
Total Pages:
25
JEL Codes:
Q12; Q16; Q54; P32
Series Statement:
IAMO Discussion Paper
161




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2018-01-23

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