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Abstract
Contemporaneous observations on expected supply and on prices of post-harvest
futures contracts for corn are used to estimate expected demand relationships. These equations
are used to forecast the prices of the post-harvest contracts based on new supply estimates. Each
forecast can be compared with a corresponding futures price, i.e., the market’s forecast. The
differences help discern the market’s expectations about the expected demand for the new crop
relative to historical experience, which can help support outlook analyses. The discussion also
deepens understanding of the term “anticipatory prices,” as used by H. Working (1958).