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Abstract

Theoretical and simulation results clarify the role of forward procurement contracting as a determinant of spot price levels and volatility. A stylized model determines market share across quality when procurers forward contract to manage quality risk. Actual supply is specified as price dependent and stochastic. Simulation examines sensitivity of spot price level and volatility to extent of forward contracting, risk aversion, and ability to adjust spot market demand (recontracting). The results show that as forward contracting increases mean spot price decreases and variance increases. This effect increases as risk aversion decreases and as the extent of recontracting adjustment in spot demand decreases.

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