This paper reports on some of the initial findings of the ARGOS (Agricultural Research Group on (Sustainability) programme, a 6 year quasi-experimental research project with the aim to model the economic, environmental, and social differences between organic, environmentally friendly and conventional systems of production. In the first section the paper reviews the development of organic markets, details the production costs and reports some preliminary results from ARGOS. The information is then used to develop potential future scenarios relating to the organic sector, which are assessed using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM), a partial equilibrium trade model that differentiates between organic and conventional production methods. This paper concentrates upon the difference between organic and conventional production, consumption and trade.


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