Ethiopia’s agricultural sector is highly diverse and subject to change due to different factors such as climate and population growth. Consequently, competition for available land, water, energy, and other inputs increases, posing pressure on the rural population’s livelihoods and food security. It is therefore imperative to analyze farmer’s production choices under these changing circumstances. The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology to establish country-wide farm typologies allowing for both a spatial and temporal analysis of the evolution of the agricultural sector, and in particular smallholders' food security and income in Ethiopia. First, household survey data is employed to categorize smallholder farming systems according to their agro-ecological zone, farm size, main activities and degree of intensification. Second, farming systems are extrapolated using a multinomial logit-regression. Resulting combinations of farming-system occurrence and their production activities are harmonized with national statistics and subsequently equipped with the potential to intensify. Compared with other typologies that commonly only focus on the distribution of farming systems, this study fills the typology with data, allowing for the analysis of income and food security over space and time. It is concluded that livestock-oriented systems are less profitable than crop-oriented systems and more prone to food-insecurity. Increased input intensification is one way to reduce pressure on cropland expansion caused by the expected increase in population, but has to go together with other methods to fully alleviate pressure on land and thereby poverty and food insecurity.


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