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Abstract

The development path that the livestock sector follows in Africa will have important economic, social and environmental implications for the region. In recent years, livestock development has become highly market driven in Africa. In this regards, several studies have attempted to project the future market perspectives for the livestock sector. Most of these studies have used theory-based simultaneous equations model approaches. This paper argues that under the complex dynamics that characterize the market for livestock products in Africa a Vector Autoregressive model could be a more appropriate methodological approach. The results show that size of the livestock market in Africa can be partly explained by the past realizations of each subsector, the cross feedback effect of other subsectors, and the changes in the levels of gross national income and population. The paper highlights that market size for livestock products in Africa by 2030 could fluctuate considerably depending on the level of economic growth achieved in the region.

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