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Abstract
From the perspective of new growth models and new international
trade theories, both exports and imports play an
important role in a dynamic economy. Economically, we cannot
merely emphasize on a positive trade balance and we ignore the
benefits of imports, and also we cannot advise negative trade
balance. But the main concern of policy makers about international
trade should be making stability and equilibrium of trade balance
in the long run. Especially, deficit agricultural trade balance can
be a great danger for food security. Hence, the main objective of
this study was to test the sustainability of Iran's agricultural
trade balance during the period 1961-2011 (1340-1390). For
this purpose, After confirming the existence of cointegration by
Gregory-Hansen Test, Hasted and Arize models was estimated
with OLS, FMOLS and DOLS methods and it released we can
verify sustainability of agricultural trade balance during the
period of the study. Also, the estimation of error correction
model showed that there is a bidirectional causality relationship
between import and export in long-run while in short-run export
only cause import in agriculture sector.