Files
Abstract
The
objective of this study was to compare the optimal replacement decisions using two
alternative state-of-the-art models: the optimization dynamic programming model and the
Markov chain simulation model. Lactation, month in milk and pregnancy status were used
to describe cow states in a herd in both models. Both models were fed with the same
parameters and transition probabilities to make the fairest comparison possible. The cow
value calculated by the Markov chain model was compared against the retention pay-off
estimated by the dynamic programming model. These values were used to rank all the
animals in the herd. Then, the rank correlation (Spearman’s correlation) was calculated
between results of both models. The overall correlation was 95%, which showed a strong
linear relationship between rankings of animals from the two models. Moreover, the lowest
10% ranking cows -which are the most likely replacement candidates- displayed a greater
correlation, 98%. Thus, the final replacement decisions with both models were similar. A
post optimality analysis was used to explore the effect of the optimal replacement decisions
on the herd dynamics and herd net return. The results showed a comparable herd
structure by both models. A net return was improved US$6/cow per year by using
replacement decisions of both dynamic programming model and the Markov chain cow
value model.