How to Derive Market Impacts of the Luxembourg Agreement on the German Beef Market - A Synthetic Uniform Model versus an Econometric Country Specific Model

The paper discusses two partial equilibrium models, one is a synthetic model (GAPsi) and the other an econometrically estimated model (AG-MEMOD). While the synthetic model incorporates only price impacts and some shifts, the econometric model also reflects other influencing factors. Price formation includes policy measures as price wedges, or as explaining variables in key price equations or price transmission equations, which is also true when premiums and decoupling are regarded. When the Luxembourg Agreement is simulated, our example of beef shows that these model differences induce deviations in model results, especially concerning prices and trade.