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Abstract
In January 2011, Illinois enacted legislation that substantially increased personal and
corporate tax rates. Academic researchers and policymakers frequently reach divergent conclusions
as to the effect of such increases on economic activity. Using employment, unemployment,
and average weekly earnings data, we find that Illinois’ economy has performed
less well than expected compared to a control group of Midwestern peers since January 2011.
We find that, compared to historical patterns, Illinois’ employment is about 1.8 percent lower
than we would expect and Illinois is losing six-one hundredths of a percent of employment
relative to the rest of the Midwest each month. Also, Illinois’ unemployment rate is about
1.25 percent higher than would be expected. This can be attributed to many factors, including
the income tax increase.