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Abstract
This paper aims to develop new methodology for the Brazilian beef
and dairy sectors incorporating different levels of productivities in the Brazilian
Land Use Model (BLUM), analyzing land use dynamics. Several datasets
combinations were used and supply and demand equations were re-estimated.
Historical database developed in this paper shows that the livestock sector
increased productivity levels per hectare (in both beef and dairy sectors), being
an important land releaser for other agricultural uses. Even in frontier regions, the
occupation process was followed by productivity increase. When technologies
were implemented in BLUM, results show that there were significant differences
on land use in 2030, reducing land for pasture compared to BLUM previous
version. In this sense, the study concludes that: using average productivity levels
on modeling can overestimate pastureland; migration between technologies
(lower to higher levels) will continue in the future; and, finally, market and
agents’ behavior changes might be incorporated in land use economic models, so
they can reproduce empirical evidences.