EFFICIENT QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF JUMP PROCESSES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SAFETY

This paper develops a dynamic framework for efficient quantitative risk assessment from the simplest general risk, combining three parameters (contamination, exposure, and dose response) in a Kataoka safety-first model and a Poisson probability representing the uncertainty effect or jump processes associated with food safety. Analysis indicates that incorporating jump processes in food safety risk assessment provides more efficient cost/risk tradeoffs. Nevertheless, increased margin of safety may lead to reduction in food safety expenses on areas that have relative advantage in reducing mean risk. The paper also develops an alternative measure for the value of risk reduction associated with uncertainty of jump processes and the cost of food safety.