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Abstract

This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 2005-2015 period using the Global Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Both the U.S. and world wheat economies are predicted to improve for the next nine years. World demand for both common and durum wheat are expected to grow faster than world production, resulting in gradual increases in prices of the wheat varieties. However, the current higher price levels in 2006 are due to weather conditions and will not be maintained, as production is expected to return to normal levels in 2007. World trade volumes of both classes of wheat are expected to expand, but trade volume of durum wheat may grow faster than that of common wheat.

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