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Abstract

Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to agricultural trade are believed to have increased as tariffs fell. Hence, measuring NTBs has become important and several alternative methods to do so are used. We develop a method that combines cointegration tests and an equilibrium model. We use these two seemingly disparate methods not only to estimate the size of NTBs, but also to assess its economic impact. We apply our method to the Russian chicken import ban and find larger impacts as compared to a common method based on price gaps. Trade policy analysts can use our method to convert the implicit economic assumptions of cointegration test results into explicit measures of NTBs or other factors that can explain the observed pattern in time series price data and estimate their impacts.

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