Farmland in the United States has undergone significant transformation over the last decades. Productivity increases, the introduction of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), and the emergence of the biofuel industry have all contributed to significant land-use changes. The potential to produce cellulosic ethanol as well as climate change will continue to change the agricultural landscape. In this paper, we present preliminary results on the importance of the evolution of agricultural productivity in the future and how it changes the land-use allocation at the county level. In particular, we are interested in yield projections and their implications for ecosystem services. For this purpose, we use a simple optimization model predicting land-use at the county level for three crops and CRP land. Given differential yield increases varying by crop and county, the potential for land-sparing and distinct ecosystem services arises.