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Abstract
This report outlines the results of various experiments to model the probability of
an area-frame farm not being on the census mailing list (NML) using covariates such
as total sales, type of farm, acreage, various operator characteristics (gender, Hispanic
status, race, and whether the primaryl occupation of the principal operator is farming),
number (if any) of equine on the farm, and, optionally, Area-Frame-Survey stratum.
Three sets of experiments were conducted. The ¯rst used California data only. The
second used data from three states - Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa, while the third used
data from the entire 48 contiguous states (there is no Area Frame Survey in either
Alaska or Hawaii).
The statistical methodology employed was logistic regression with a modi¯cation of
stepwise regression for variable selection. Standard errors were estimated using design-
based linearization methods.
Conclusions are drawn about the nature of 2002 NML farms. Some are as expected
(farms with small total sales are more likely to be NML). Others are surprising (holding
all other factors constant, point farms are not sgni¯cantly more likely to be NML than
other farms with less than $2,500 in annual sales).
A number of methodological problems needing further research are suggested as a
result of this study.