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Abstract

Export patterns for U.S. and Canadian hard wheats (HAD, HRS, HRW, CWRS, and CWAD) were examined. Analysis incorporated grade and non-grade factors from U.S. shipments and grades and classes of Canadian exports. Shift-share analysis was used to examine changes in market shares for classes and grades. Cluster analysis was used to group importers of U.S. wheat classes based on like grade and non- grade factors of wheat shipments. Canada exports most of its hard wheat as No. 1, while the U.S. exports predominately No. 2 or better. Classes experiencing increased market shares include HRS, CWRS, and CWAD. U.S. HRS, HRW, and HAD all showed patterns of increasing market shares for No. 1 over lesser grades from the early 1980s to 1990s. Importer comparisons indicated that in many cases, countries imported largely No. 1 from Canada and lesser grades from the U.S. (predominately No. 2 or better). Clustering analysis indicated an increase in the number of distinct segments of wheat importers from 1986-89 to 1991-94. Composition of market segments also changed with many countries moving from one segment to another from one year to the next.

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