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Abstract

This report evaluates the U.S. and world wheat markets for the 1999-2009 period by using the Global Wheat Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Both the U.S. and world wheat economies are predicted to be improving for the next ten years. World demands for both common and durum wheat are expected to grow faster than world production of the two wheat classes, resulting in gradual increases in prices of the wheats, which are predicted to increase 36% for durum wheat and 23% for common wheat for the 1999-2009 period. However, the prices are expected to recover slowly for the next 2-3 years. World trade volumes of both classes of wheat are expected to expand, but trade volume of durum wheat may grow faster than common wheat.

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