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Abstract
Oil price shocks have the potential to slow down the economic growth
and create inflationary pressures in oil importing small economies. A vector
auto regression (VAR) model, augmented by Toda and Yamamoto procedure,
was estimated using monthly data from 2000-2013 to examine the impacts of
oil price shocks on Sri Lankan economy. The results indicate that linear oil
price shocks affect GDP, foreign reserves and interest rate. Positive oil price
shocks affect foreign reserves and the interest rate, while negative oil price
shocks affect GDP, interest rates and exports. Oil price decreases have
larger and quicker impacts on GDP. Thus, there is evidence for presence of
asymmetric oil price impacts in Sri Lankan economy. No evidence to show
that oil price shocks cause inflation. As such, the government has the ability
to employ expansionary monetary policy to avoid stagflation during high oil
price periods. Overall, the results indicate that the economy has a certain
degree of insulation from international oil price increases. In addition, energy
policy has also contributed to insulate the economy from oil price shocks
through reduction in energy intensity.