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Abstract

This study „estimates the magnitude of the effect of the increase in groundfish imports on U.S. groundfish prices. The estimate is based on an analysis of the changes in supply and demand in the U.S. landings market. The short-run was found to be perfectly inelastic; changes in supply are therefore equal to changes in landings. The singleequation model was used to estimate several demand equations for the wholesale level and the implications for the landings level were derived. The following demand equation gave the best fit: log Qfsp = -.61 -.46 log II!2.12 (.17) Pm&p *Significant at 0.05 level **Significant at 0.01 level .26 log Y .044 D1** (.26) (.012) R 2 (Adjusted) =95.7 Durbin-Watson d = 1.83 .013 D 2 t** .003) The conclusions of the study are: 1. The decline of U.S. groundfish prices in the 1950Ts resulted from two factors: the drop in meat and poultry prices and the increase In imports, with the latter causing prices to drop by less than 8.1 percent. 2. The effects of imports on U.S. groundfish prices have been grossly overestimated in a recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries.

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