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Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to build and validate an econometric model for the Spanish agrifood sector that allows for projection and policy simulation under alternative scenarios. We developed an econometric, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium commodity model where policy instruments were explicitly introduced in order to allow quantitative analysis of CAP reform scenarios. The Spanish Econometric Simulation of Agricultural Policies (SESAP) model results indicate that the new decoupling measure introduced by the Luxembourg Agreement have mainly impact on the sectors more linked to the new instrument, cereals, oilseed, cattle and beef meat and, sheep and lamb meat. Moreover, only changes in area harvested, number of animals and production for those products have been found.

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