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Abstract

We use a multi-region GTAP model to study the implications of a global sugar free trade agreement on the U.S. sugar industry. In general, the sugar net importing countries such as the former Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States would reduce sugar production and increase their net imports from the world market. By contrast, the sugar net exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil, and Thailand would increase their sugar production and increase their net exports. Under a scenario where import tariffs and export subsidies are completely eliminated, U.S. sugar production would decrease by 2.8%. This is in contrast to some of the previous studies, which argued that the U.S. sugar production would increase slightly annually. U.S. import prices would decrease by 21.9% and U.S. domestic sugar prices would decrease slightly by 0.8%. U.S. net imports of sugar of sugar would increase 478.1 million US dollars.

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