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Abstract

China has experienced the dramatic change of food consumption pattern in the last three decades. However, there are different opinions toward the future change of this process. By adopting the well-developed Chinese agricultural partial equilibrium model-CAPiM model, the demands on livestock products and main feed crops in 2011-2031 are predicted and analyzed. It is found that China's per capita consumption of livestock products will continue to rise in 2011-2031, even though its growth rate will slow down gradually. Meanwhile, the expansion of livestock production will pose great challenges on feed supply in China. More accurately, it is feed security instead of grain security confronted by China in the future. Based on the findings, the related policy implications are proposed.

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